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22 - DINÂMICA FUTURA DA ÁGUA VERDE E AZUL NO CULTIVO DE SOJA EM GOIÁS SOB CENÁRIOS DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

Doi: 10.47094/978-65-284-0615-9/215-225

PALAVRAS CHAVE: Água verde. Irrigação. Mudanças climáticas.

KEYWORDS: Green water. Irrigation. Climate change.

ABSTRACT:
This study evaluated the future dynamics of green and blue water in soybean cultivation in Goiás, Brazil, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios for the periods 2040–2070 and 2070–2099. Crop water demand was estimated using data from the PROJETA Platform (CPTEC/INPE), based on reference evapotranspiration and precipitation simulated by the HadGEM2-ES model. Simulations were conducted for the 20 leading soybean-producing municipalities in the state. The results indicated an increase in the frequency of dry years, intensification of precipitation extremes, and a reduction in the contribution of green water, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Consequently, the contribution of blue water to crop water demand increased, indicating a greater dependence on irrigation. These findings highlight the need for adaptation strategies to promote efficient water resource management and ensure the sustainability of soybean production under future climate conditions.

Autores

  • José Bonifácio Martins Filho

  • Lineu Neiva Rodrigues

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