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109 - RETROANÁLISE DAS OCORRÊNCIAS DE MOVIMENTOS DE MASSA À LUZ DO PLANO MUNICIPAL DE REDUÇÃO DE RISCOS (PMRR) DE ILHÉUS–BA

Doi: 10.47094/COBRAMSEG2026.4/109

PALAVRAS CHAVE: Movimentos de massa, Pluviometria, Densidade Populacional, Gestão de Risco.

KEYWORDS: Mass movements, Rainfall, Population density, Risk management.

ABSTRACT:
Mass-movement processes represent a persistent challenge for urban management in tropical regions of Brazil, especially where steep residual soils, high rainfall indices and densely occupied hillslopes converge. The municipality of Ilhéus, situated on a complex geomorphological framework of dissected hills and coastal plains, exhibits recurrent landslide events strongly influenced by prolonged rainfall. This study integrates disaster records from the local Civil Defense (2002–2024), 72-hour accumulated rainfall from monitoring stations of CEMADEN, and demographic data from the 2022 census provided by IBGE. After filtering and validating 1,183 landslide-related occurrences, a Kernel density surface was generated to map spatial concentrations of events. This heatmap was then compared with census-based population-density distributions to assess the interplay between hazard intensity and demographic exposure. Results indicate a clear spatial convergence between high-intensity Kernel hotspots and densely populated sectors located on steep urban slopes. Moreover, an expressive increase in event frequency was observed above the threshold of 100 mm of accumulated rainfall in 72 hours, signaling a critical hydrometeorological trigger for slope failures. The integrated analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of combining publicly accessible datasets to refine risk diagnostics and support early-warning strategies in municipalities with similar geotechnical conditions.

Autores

  • Cleverson Alves de Lima

  • Daniel Miranda Ramos de Araújo

  • Gabriel Fernando Duarte de Bairros

  • Joel Pereira Felipe

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